Monsoonal Rainfall of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal: Empirical Modelling and Forecasting

  • Pijush Basak Dept. of Mathematics, Narula Institute of Technology
Keywords: South West Monsoon rainfall, Lognormal distribution, Skill of forecast, modelling, Climatic normal.

Abstract

The South West Monsoonal rainfall data of the subdivisions of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal is
modelled as a non-linear time series. As observed through set of rainfall data of the regions, more
than 60% of the inter-annual variability of rainfall is accounted for by the proposed non-linear model.
The proposed model is capable of forecasting South West Monsoon rainfall one year in advance in the
respective regions. The model indicates the high/low rainfall with the help of antecedent data. For the
year 2001, the predicted South West Monsoon rainfall in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal is
168.21±21.36 (cm).

Published
2024-02-20
How to Cite
Basak, P. (2024). Monsoonal Rainfall of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal: Empirical Modelling and Forecasting. Vayumandal, 44(1), 46-53. Retrieved from https://vayumandal.imetsociety.org/index.php/Vayumandal/article/view/92
Issue
Vol 44 No 1 (2018): VAYUMANDAL
Section
Research Paper

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