Latest Approaches to Thunderstorm/Lightning and Severe Weather Forecasting using High Resolution Numerical Model

Abstract

In India, lightning is responsible for at least 10% of the total deaths caused by natural calamities. Recently, it is noticed that, there is an increasing trend of lightning activity due to combined positive effect of aerosol and thermodynamics. In this backdrop, there is an urgent need of developing a technique of forecasting lightning flashes during thunderstorms. This research has important implications for adopting proper precautionary measures over the Indian region. Here, we have computed Lightning Potential Index (LPI) as a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes, using best suitable physics and model strategies in a cloud resolving model. Guidance of Global Forecast System (GFS —12.5Km) by deriving various thermodynamic indices has been achieved and based on these outlook, forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm event has been attempted using WRF-ARW model derived LPI in cloud resolving scale(1 km). This study invokes the idea of initiating probabilistic forecast of lightning using GFST1534 and WRF in real time. Thus, it has a great societal importance for the aviation sector and public safety.