Cyclone Vulnerability and Risk Analysis for Coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

This paper is an attempt to analyze the mandal wise percentage population at risk due to vulnerability of cyclones in nine coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh using the Expert Decision Support System(EDSS) available with Andhra Pradesh State Development Planning Society(APSDPS) based on the latest data sets. The EDSS model is used to compute expected casualties due to cyclones by considering percentage area inundated, combined casualty rate for a wind speed of 235 kmph from the outputs of storm surge model and wind damage model, and population and number of existing cyclone shelters as inputs. The results indicate that out of 430 mandals in 9 coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh, the affected mandals due to cyclone with a wind speed of 235Kmph are 190. The percentage population at risk is categorised into 4 classes as, low, medium, high and very high in 55, 86, 31, and 17 mandals respectively. Out of the total population in 9 coastal districts, 11% of population is at risk (7% - rural and 4% - urban). Out of total rural population, 10% rural people are at risk. Further results shows that the existing cyclone shelters (664) can accommodate only 8% of rural people at risk and hence safe places shall be identified for the remaining 92% of the rural people at risk. This analysis enables the officials involved in disaster management and rescue operations to concentrate on the identified affected mandals of population at risk during cyclone event and also to identify safe places for evacuation during cyclones