Operational Extended Range Forecast Activity in IMD and its Applications in Different Sectors

Abstract

In this review article various aspects of real time extended range forecast (ERF) based empirical models and dynamic models including the Multi-model Ensemble (MME) generated by India Meteorological Department (IMD) of southwest monsoon, northeast monsoon, cyclogenesis over the Bay of Bengal (Bob) and maximum and minimum temperature during the period from 2009 to 2014 have been discussed. The prospects of its application in different sectors are also analysed. The performance of extended range forecasts for the southwest monsoon seasons clearly captured the delay/early onset of monsoon over Kerala, active/break spells of monsoon and also withdrawal of monsoon in the real time in providing guidance for various applications. The MME based ERF also provides encouraging results to provide useful guidance for 2/3 weeks about northeast monsoon during October to December (OND), tropical cyclogenesis over the north Indian Ocean during OND and maximum and minimum temperatures during winter and summer. However, there is a lot more need to be done to provide this in smaller spatial scales. In order to further strengthen IMD’s capability of real time ERF, it has started collaborative work with other national and international partners