Autoregressive Model Development of Some Rainfall Stations of Assam

  • Pijush Basak Narula Institute of Technology, Kolkata
Keywords: South West Monsoon, Autoregressive model, Akaike Information Criteria, Residual analysis, Mean Forecast Error, Root Mean Square error.

Abstract

The study is concerned with the development of a time series model for predictions of the South West Monsoon (SWM) rainfall in three rainfall stations, namely Barpeta, Digboi and Goalpara spread over plain and hilly areas of Assam. The SWM rainfall data of 60 years (1900-1960) are collected and are used for the development of the model. Autoregressive (AR) models of different orders are progressively tried to fit the model. It is observed that the AR model of order one can be used efficiently for the future prediction of rainfall at these stations. The goodness of fit and adequacy of the model are tested with the help of Akaike information criteria and other tests such as residual analysis. The graphical comparisons of historical and generated data are in close agreement
Published
2024-02-25
How to Cite
Basak, P. (2024). Autoregressive Model Development of Some Rainfall Stations of Assam. Vayumandal, 42(2), 140-151. Retrieved from https://vayumandal.imetsociety.org/index.php/Vayumandal/article/view/145
Issue
Vol 42 No 2 (2016): VAYUMANDAL
Section
Research Paper

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