Extended-range Forecasts of Extreme Rainfall Events over Jammu and Kashmir during September 2014

Abstract

The monsoon behavior is different from one year to another year as it is influenced by different regional and global features. The unusual features of monsoon 2014 were its sluggish progress northward from southern tip of India after delayed onset on 6th June. The monsoon covered entire India by 17 July and it witnessed very heavy rainfall in September 2014 over many parts of northern India in general and Jammu-Kashmir (J&K) meteorological subdivision in particular, leading to large scale destruction of life and property. The unprecedented flood event occurred over J&K region in active phase of monsoon during September 3-6, 2014. The J& K flood 2014 was most destructive flood over the region till date. Forecasting of such heavy rainfall event with sufficient lead time will enable the disaster managers to take appropriate measures to minimize the loss of life and property In the present study the real-time forecasting of this heavy rainfall event in the extended range time scale is investigated. The performance of the real-time extended range forecasts based on the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) coupled model outputs is analyzed. The Global Forecast System (GFS) model analysis has been used to see the observational features of circulation associated with this rain event. The extended range forecast of active phase of monsoon during the heavy rainfall event of Jammu and Kashmir based on CFSv2 model although predicted well, the magnitude was underestimated and the lead time was also very short and the model could capture the features reasonably well only in the first week of forecast.